Market Spotlight: Dallas-Fort Worth, TX

Published on
June 13, 2023
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Dallas–Fort Worth is home to 22 Fortune 500 companies, the 4th-largest concentration of Fortune 500 companies in the United States.

Dallas-Forth Worth in TX recently became the country’s fourth largest market and, in the last decade, it has continuously ranked in the top markets for employment and population growth. As of 2021, Dallas–Fort Worth is home to 22 Fortune 500 companies, the 4th-largest concentration of Fortune 500 companies in the United States behind New York City, Chicago, and Houston. Employment growth is expected to outperform the national benchmark over the next five years.

The population in Dallas-Fort Worth grew by more than 1.2 million residents in 10 years according to the 2020 Census, close to a 20% growth.

Abundant job opportunities have spurred significant population growth. From 2019 to 2020, approximately 120,000 people from outside the market have been added to the local population. Dallas-Fort Worth gained more residents than any other market in the country and made up more than one-third of Texas' population growth during that period. Since the last census in 2010, the market gained more than 1.2 million residents (close to 20% growth), one of only three U.S. markets to grow as much.

Vacancy rates are at 5.3%, their lowest point on record, and year over year rent growth is at 14.6%

As a result of the growth in population, the rate of new leases is well above average pre-pandemic levels. In addition, new construction has slowed down, with construction starts at its lowest level since 2012. These factors are driving vacancy rates to their lowest point on record, currently at 5.3%. Dallas-Fort Worth has relatively low home prices and residents tend to eventually turn to single-family housing, but demand has outstripped supply of for-sale housing in the past, leading to a competitive housing market. The pandemic exacerbated this situation and has created a hyper-competitive environment, making it even more difficult to enter homeownership. Households are now left renting for longer.

Due to the pandemic, Dallas-Forth Worth ended 2020 almost flat in terms of rent growth, mostly influenced by assets in Downtown and Uptown after many departed following the initial impact of the pandemic. In 2021, the market has posted record growth. Prior to the 2020 recession, annual rent growth trended between 2% and 3% in the past couple of years. Now, the year-over-year growth is at 14.6% with average asking rent at $1408 per month. The expected lower supply of new construction, continued job and population growth and relative affordability should keep vacancy rates tight and rent growth robust.

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